The International Cocoa Organisation has released its latest quarterly report that has revealed a projected decline of 12.9 in production volumes to 4.368 million tonnes, and a drop of 4.8% in grindings to 4.81 million tonnes for the 2023/24 season, reports Neill Barston.

As previously reported, the industry has faced a sustained period of crisis that has led to a deficit of supplies that has resulted in prices reaching around $12,000 a tonne on Futures markets in New York and London, as the sector faces a perfect storm of conditions.

The combination of unfavourable weather, crop disease including swollen shoot virus, an ageing agricultural workforce working under below world poverty levels, and other external factors including persistent illegal gold mining operations also impacting on the industry, have combined todeliver a sustained shock to the trade.

However, the ICCO observed improved figures for cocoa exports of beans and semi-finished products, which reached 2.490 million tonnes during October to December 2024, representing an increase of 6.1% compared to 2.347 million tonnes recorded during October to December 2023.

A review of price developments on international markets was also presented by the ICCO in context of previous achievements. The organisation had previously initially estimated that for the 2022/23 season, world gross production would be 5016 tonnes, with the figures for 2023/24 being revised downwards to its latest level of 4,368 tonnes.

The organisation, which is now headquartered in Ivory Coast, having previously been based in London, has operated to provide a framework for the industry since 1973, operating under UN guidance. It presently includes 52 members, including 23 cocoa exporters and 29 importing nations.

Significantly, the group has continued with its monthly updates, with its most recent bulletin last month showing that concerns remained surrounding the introduction of US tariffs, which even at a reduced figure of 10% for many locations in Africa, stand to negatively impact the industry. Indeed, confectionery groups in America, including Hershey have sought exemption from the fresh levies, asserting the fact that cocoa crops cannot be commercially grown within the country, and therefore the sector should not be subject to the newly detailed regime.

According to the ICCO’s latest figures, which cover the third quarter of the 2024/25 season, which also marks the beginning of the mid-crop, beginning in April, the cost of contract increased to US$8,787 per tonne in London and to US$9,286 per tonne in New York.

This was against highs of $12,000 a tonne seen at the start of the year.According to the ICCO’s latest figures, which cover the third quarter of the 2024/25 season, which also marks the beginning of the mid-crop, beginning in April, the cost of contract increased to US$8,787 per tonne in London and to US$9,286 per tonne in New York. This was against highs of $12,000 a tonne seen at the start of the year.