Casablanca Stock Exchange: A Promising Start to 2024
The stock market year 2024 is off to the best possible start at the Casablanca Stock Exchange, with the MASI index achieving a flawless performance in the first week of January. The weekly gain is 2.28%, allowing the index to surpass its 2023 annual highs at 12,369 points.
What can we now expect from the year 2024? One thing seems certain: much will depend this year on the trajectory of inflation and the monetary policy of Bank Al-Maghrib. In absolute terms, the market does not seem far from the situation in the second half of 2023: investors seem to be counting on the famous "Goldilocks" scenario, which, to put it simply, would mean that inflation would recede, the economy would slow down slightly, and the central bank would move to a rate cut.
This start to the year also gives way to the prediction games of strategists. Those at M.S.IN expect the stock market rally to continue in 2024. This forecast is based on several key factors, ranging from controlled inflation to the recovery of various economic sectors.
According to Bank Al-Maghrib, inflation is expected to fall below 3% in 2024 and 2025. This decrease in inflation would also mark the end of an exceptional cycle of monetary tightening undertaken by central banks over the past two years. This cycle has significantly influenced the stock markets, often negatively.
Analysts also anticipate an increase in the profits of publicly traded companies. In 2023, a 15% increase in profits is anticipated, driven by positive momentum in the banking sector and the absence of exceptional charges such as those previously imposed by ANRT.
Sectors to Watch in 2024
Several key sectors are expected to experience a notable recovery in 2024. Among them, construction, tourism, banking, events, transportation, and telecommunications will particularly benefit from major events planned in Morocco, such as the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations and the 2030 World Cup. Additionally, the construction sector will be boosted by a massive investment program in rebuilding regions affected by the Al Haouz earthquake, with a budget of 120 billion dirhams over five years.
The real estate sector, which has faced difficult times in recent years, is also expected to experience a resurgence. This revival is anticipated following the launch of a new housing assistance program that started in January 2024 and will extend through 2028. This initiative is expected to stimulate not only real estate but also related sectors.
Moreover, in the stock market, the real estate index shows the best performance during this first week with an increase of 13%. This dynamic is attributed by operators to the immediate launch of the housing assistance program, operational as of this Tuesday thanks to the digital platform "DAAM SAKANE", promoted by the Ministry of Housing.
Finally, the announcement in the 2024 Finance Law of the privatization of a number of state-owned companies that have reached a sufficient level of economic maturity to reduce the Treasury's deficit could also energize the Stock Exchange.
In summary, 2024 is shaping up to be a year of continued bullish momentum in stocks. However, investors will have to contend with contrasting macro perspectives this year, marked by a slowdown in growth against the backdrop of the specter of another year of drought, and more moderate inflation which should nevertheless remain above BAM's targets until the end of the year.
Equity Market: The Casablanca Stock Exchange trended upwards from January 2 to January 5, 2024, with its main index, the MASI, gaining 2.28% to 12,368.94 points (pts). The MASI.20, which reflects the performance of the share prices of the 20 most liquid companies, and the MASI.ESG, the index of companies that receive the highest ESG rating as published by Moody's ESG Solutions, advanced respectively by 2.09% to 1,010.57 pts and by 2.16% to 921.36 pts.
Bond Market: For the first week of the year 2024, the Treasury raised 1 billion Moroccan Dirhams in the face of a demand from investors of 2.29 billion Moroccan Dirhams. These were bonds of 13 weeks (+2 basis points), 52 weeks (stable), and 2 years (-0.7 basis point), amounting to 100 MDH, 100 MDH, and 800 MDH, with respective rates of 2.9%, 3.076%, and 3.222%.
Foreign Exchange Market: The Moroccan Dirham has slightly appreciated at the end of the year against the US dollar, moving from 9.91 to 9.89. Thus, the USD/MAD pair closes 2023 with a decrease of -0.18%. At the end of this week, the basket effect is -0.22% compared to +0.04% for the liquidity effect. Liquidity spreads have increased slightly this week, moving from 0.84% to 0.88%, a rise of +4 basis points (BPS).
REIM Partners, an Asset Management Company, has launched a new publicly available OPCI (Real Estate Collective Investment Scheme), aiming to invest, finance, and support the development of real estate assets dedicated to healthcare throughout Morocco. Details.
The Foreign Exchange Office announced the launch of a regularization operation for assets held abroad, which will extend from January 1 to December 31, 2024. Details.
Growth forecast: 2.4% in Q1-2024
Cement: Sales down by 0.19% in 2023
Automotive exports: Up by 30% as of the end of November 2023
Last Thursday, the governor of the Béni Mellal-Khénifra province, Khatib Lehlib, and the CEO of Akdital Group, Dr. Rochdi Talib, inaugurated a new healthcare facility in Béni Mellal, the "Béni Mellal Private Hospital". Details.
We are incorporating CFG Bank into our "trading portfolio" at the closing price of January 4, 2024, at 149.5 Moroccan Dirham (DH).
Historical Operations Table
As part of its editorial strategy, Boursenews.ma is launching a virtual portfolio aimed at capturing stock market performance over several months. With an initial capital of 1 million DH, this portfolio consists of carefully selected stocks, reflecting a judicious balance between the potential for earnings growth and a robust growth strategy.
Graphically, the recent bullish push and the surpassing of the 2023 highs validate the bullish message for the MASI in the short and medium term. The next resistance zone to focus on is between 12,550/750 points.